Economy & Trade

Although the recovery in the global economy has begun, Finnish exports and industrial output remain stagnant. There is little doubt that a turnaround will occur, but the details concerning how and when are still unclear. Will concern about growing public debt cut off the gas too early, or will the power of the economy be sufficient to maintain the growth?

Growth in the Finnish economy remained elusive in the second quarter. The seasonally adjusted decline in GDP continued from the previous quarter. Compared with the previous year, GDP in April-June fell by almost 10%.

There is a significant dispersion among forecasts for this autumn. The forecast by the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA) is the most pessimistic. The most optimistic is that of Nordea, which forecasts a contraction in GDP of just 4.5% for this year and growth of 2.5% next year. ETLA forecasts a decline in GDP of 7% for this year and zero growth for next year. ETLA also forecasts that the second half of the year will be brighter than the first.

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